The great leaders never want to go to the war, but must be ready to go to war with all circumstances because they believe that peace is just a delay and a readiness to fight. Peace can only be maintained if ones are strong enough. But the war for unification of Taiwan will hurt more than gain for China. The United States and its allies will send a large number of missiles to the island, including forming an anti-China coalition movement, confiscating all Chinese assets on US soil and its allies, imposing severe economic sanctions on China and possibly blocking shipping lanes of China as well. China, in addition to losing both its military and its economy, will lose its image on the international stage and its goal of becoming a global superpower, as well as finding that it is difficult to control the more than 23 million Taiwanese who will revolve on a regular basis.
In addition, Japan will quickly seize the opportunity to reinforce its military to protect its security. In the difficult situation of Taiwan’s unification, China still adheres to Deng Xiaoping’s view that “strong people must never give up their last resort.” The word “ last resort” here means “use the largest troops to attack.” China also sees that complex problems will also provide good opportunities. “You do not have to be a fool to shed tears because of problems, but you have to be a great person to turn problems into the opportunity.” So what should China do?
In war, there is no distinction between right and wrong, but who can win and who can survive. The winner is the brave and the hero, while the dead not even the corpse are taken to the funeral. For China, must be very careful and if have to fight, have to win and the war must be fast. China follows the traditional Chinese strategy game of Go and the winning without having to fight according to the Sun Tsu. The Go game means that China must not focus too directly on Taiwan, but must find a dead end and cut off Taiwan relations first. We must make Taiwan weak and besiege it. “We must make Taiwan weak and isolated.” This is a strategic war and a psychological war ahead to ensure that if an armed war breaks out, China will easily win. The wise must anticipate and seek victory before the battle.
To ensure China’s victory in the diplomatic and economic battles, China has urged some countries to disconnect and stop doing business with Taiwan (details are not provided here). To conquer the colony, the Chinese army prepared the largest siege in the 21st century and prepared both strategically and psychologically. China sees Taiwan’s breath and hope are on the United States and its allies. So the challenge to influence the United States and its regional allies is to beat Taiwan. To challenge the United States, China which regards the South China Sea as its territorial integrity, has expanded its air bases, navies and created artificial islands to equip the South China Sea with military technology communications. Doing so is an expansion of standby power in case war breaks out and extends power over the surrounding area.
China also sees that to defeat Taiwan and even the United States in Asia will depend on naval and air forces. Therefore, building a strong navy and air force has become a priority goal of China. After expanding its power in the South China Sea, China expanded its naval presence in the East China Sea to confront Japan and confront the United States in the Pacific. China regularly sends warships and reconnaissance aircraft, trains and drills in these two seas, and then flies around Taiwan.
In December 2016, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning held a naval exercise in the Yellow Sea, a confrontation with US troops in South Korea. Two days later, they moved to the south to train in the East China Sea, facing US and Japanese troops. A day later, on December 25, China even launched an aircraft carrier to the Strait of Miyako, near the US military base on Okinawa, then sailed from north to east and entered the Bashi Channel to conduct exercises in the South China Sea, more than 10 days, and then launched an aircraft carrier into the Taiwan Strait after exercises. Currently, Chinese aircraft carriers and fighter jets, as well as Chinese ships, are actively operating on both seas and straits. Doing so is frightening and disturbing to cause Taiwanese a nightmare in which they will see the massive Chinese weapons near their houses.
China is also building a third aircraft carrier . China also sees that if war breaks out, the United States and its allies could block its shipping lanes in the Strait of Malacca, which could seriously hurt China’s economy. Perhaps of this reason that China is trying to significantly expand its influence over Burma and oppose international sanctions imposed on Burma’s military regime. China has also requested direct shipments of goods through Burma to China, in addition to building oil and gas pipelines.
By besieging these major seas, China could also directly threaten Taiwan and cut off arms supplies in case of war. According to US strategists, China is likely to invade Taiwan by 2027. But this is only the conclusion of the last resort. China may have to control Taiwan’s airspace and seas and cause internal divisions first. Then force Taiwan to unite peacefully. Even if China will go to war, it may just be a psychological warfare, but not a crushing one.
In addition, by disrupting and threatening Japan, causing tensions with India, including threats to the disputed country in the South China Sea, also threatened Taiwan. The United States and its allies, as well as Taiwan itself, have sought to respond to China’s strategy by stepping up anti-China forces and increasing their commitment to defending Taiwan and increasing arms sales to the island in response to Chinese threats.
“The strong goes to quarrel the weak through means of threatening and intimidation, while the weak fight back by finding their backs and acting as if it has no fear.”